Beginning with this year’s hurricane season outlooks, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will use 1991-2020 as the new 30-year period of record. Recent observations suggest that atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to evolve toward La Niña. NOAA and Colorado State University have both increased their hurricane season forecasts this week. As a result, it is not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling storms in a seasonal outlook, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. May 21, 2020 An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) are even more conducive to hurricane formation than was predicted in May. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Model predictions of sea surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability are still showing some spread for the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season, and it is unclear as to exactly how conducive these conditions will be for tropical cyclone development during ASO 2020. The forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 60% chance of 13 to 19 named storms (normal is 12). Such forecasts often have limited skill, especially when border-line El Niño or La Niña events are predicted. This overall streamfunction pattern is directly related to an enhanced West African monsoon system. The combination of La Niña and a warm phase of the AMO typically results in exceptionally weak vertical wind shear in the MDR, which favors activity near the upper ends of the predicted ranges. This activity is higher than was predicted in May (110%-190% of the median ACE), and is entirely above NOAA's lower threshold (120% of median) for an above-normal season (Jon; Link here to the Background Information). Nature of this outlook and the "likely" ranges of activity: Climate, 21, 3929 - 3935. An inter-related set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, which is very conducive for hurricane development, is now present in the MDR and is expected to continue through the hurricane season. It is crucial that residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions prepare for every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. 1. Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W. M. Gray, 2001: The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity. “NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” NOAA Acting Administrator Neil Jacobs said Thursday. ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. NOAA's updated 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal hurricane season is very likely, with a significant possibility of the season being extremely active. HWRF will incorporate new data from satellites and radar from NOAA’s coastal Doppler data network to help produce better forecasts of hurricane track and intensity during the critical watch and warning time frame. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through … Predicted very conducive conditions in the MDR. These upper-level wind anomalies are situated along the southern flank of a persistent and amplified subtropical ridge at 200-hPa, as indicated by positive streamfunction anomalies extending from the Caribbean Sea across tropical northern Africa. “NOAA’s analysis of current and seasonal atmospheric conditions reveals a recipe for an active Atlantic hurricane season this year,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. The result is more, stronger, and longer-lived storms. This updated outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2020 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th: The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. The underlying climate factor for these conditions is the ongoing Atlantic high-activity era, which began in 1995 in association with a transition to the warm phase of the AMO (Goldenberg et al. NOAA joins other forecasters we track in calling for one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record in 2020. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is now predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 19-25 named storms (which includes the nine named storms to date), of which 7-11 are expected to become hurricanes, and 3-6 of those are expected to become major hurricanes. With tornado season at its peak, hurricane season around the corner, and flooding, earthquakes and wildfires a risk year-round, it is time to revise and adjust your emergency plan now,” said Carlos Castillo, acting deputy administrator for resilience at FEMA. This year, as during any hurricane season, the men and women of NOAA remain ready to provide the life-saving forecasts and warnings that the public rely on. The outlook indicates an 85% chance of an above-normal season, only a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a nominal 5% chance of a below-normal season.See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. NOAA Hurricane Research Division Joint Hurricane Testbed Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Other Resources Q & A with NHC NHC/AOML Library Branch NOAA: Hurricane FAQs National Hurricane Operations Plan WX4NHC Amateur Radio. The combination of La Niña and the warm AMO sets the stage for a potentially extremely active season. Extremely active seasons typically have more storms threatening the U.S. Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast, and the entire region around the Caribbean Sea. Science, 293, 474-479. J. While the official hurricane season concludes on November 30, tropical storms may continue to develop past that day. These storms then have an extended area in which to intensify as they propagate westward over progressively warmer waters, and within an environment of reduced vertical wind shear, increased tropical moisture, and decreased atmospheric stability. These expectations are based on extensive monitoring, analysis, and research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical model forecasts. HMON will undergo enhancements to include higher resolution, improved physics, and coupling with ocean models. These conditions are typical of other extremely active seasons in the historical record. Mexico was also impacted by Christobal and Hanna. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. Preparedness for Tropical Storm and Hurricane Landfalls. La Niña is classified by Niño 3.4 index of -0.5°C or cooler, along with consistent atmospheric impacts. Keep in mind, you may need to adjust any preparedness actions based on the latest health and safety guidelines from the CDC and your local officials. Since 1995, 17 of 25 (68%) seasons have been above normal (not counting 2020) and nine have been extremely active. And as storms show signs of developing, NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be prepared to collect valuable data for our forecasters and computer models. “Just as in years past, NOAA experts will stay ahead of developing hurricanes and tropical storms and provide the forecasts and warnings we depend on to stay safe.”. This warmth is related to a combination of weaker northeasterly low-level winds into the eastern MDR, and weaker low-level tropical easterly trade winds in the southern MDR, both of which reflect the lower SLP across the MDR. So far this year, the Atlantic hurricane season has had nine named storms, including the most recent, Isaias that hit the East Coast earlier this week, and forecasters say … Similar conditions have been producing more active seasons since the current high-activity era began in 1995. There is about a 50% chance of La Niña during August-October, and virtually no chance that El Niño will develop and suppress the hurricane activity this season. The pattern of anomalous convection now in place acts to weaken the downstream upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea, thus reducing the vertical wind shear and favoring increased Atlantic hurricane activity. These conditions include exceptionally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a stronger West African monsoon, weaker vertical wind shear, lower surface air pressure, weaker trade winds, and more conducive wind patterns coming off of Africa. The NOAA updated its earlier seasonal forecast to include more storms, saying the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season “has the potential to be one of the busiest on record.”. This wind pattern reflects weaker easterly winds (i.e., anomalous westerlies) along the equatorward flank of the AEJ axis. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. Presented at AMS 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, April 2018. NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. The outlook indicates an 85% chance of an above-normal season, only a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a nominal 5% chance of a … Eastern North Pacific (out to 140°W) The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. ENSO-neutral conditions have been present this summer, but with generally below-average SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region. Models now predict an even more active season than they did in May, along with a higher potential for an extremely active season. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already produced a May-July record of nine named storms, with seven tropical storms and two hurricanes. The federal agency is predicting that there could be three to six major hurricanes in 2020, which is a Category 3 hurricane or higher that packs winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions: An easy way to start is to download the FEMA app today.”. “Natural disasters won’t wait, so I encourage you to keep COVID-19 in mind when revising or making your plan for you and your loved ones, and don’t forget your pets. El Niño, which refers to long periods (9-12 months) with above-average SSTs across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged at 3. 2020 forecast courtesy of NOAA. Therefore, 2020 could become the third extremely active season since 2005, and it could also set a record of five consecutive above-normal seasons. Exceptional warmth has been present in the MDR throughout the summer, and the MDR area-averaged anomaly during June was +0.6°C. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 140%-230% of the median, which includes the ACE from the nine named storms to date. ENSO has three phases: El Niño, Neutral and La Niña. The above atmospheric conditions are all consistent with an enhanced West African monsoon system, which is an integral component of the warm AMO phase. The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). In addition to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins. ENSO forecasts also use a combination of statistical and other dynamical models contained in the suite of Niño 3.4 SST forecasts, which is compiled by the IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Photo: NOAA. The first named storm of the season, Arthur, occurred in earlier in May before the NOAA's outlook was announced. NOAA's forecast calls for 19 to 25 named storms, including 7 to … * Spanish translations, when available, are courtesy of the NWS San Juan Weather Forecast Office . ENSO-neutral conditions are indicated by sustained Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C. The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Reports contain comprehensive information on each tropical cyclone, including synoptic history, meteorological statistics, casualties and damages, and the post-analysis best track (six-hourly positions and intensities). The combination of several climate factors is driving the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. Mon. The updated averages for the Atlantic hurricane season have increased with 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. 2. “Social distancing and other CDC guidance to keep you safe from COVID-19 may impact the disaster preparedness plan you had in place, including what is in your go-kit, evacuation routes, shelters and more. ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon located over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. 2020 could become the third extremely active season since 2005, and it will likely set a record of five consecutive above-normal seasons, surpassing the previous record of four set in 1998-2001 and 2016-2019. 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. HEADER.CP The Central North Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. The 2019 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The resulting increase in cyclonic relative vorticity is more conducive to the intensification of African easterly waves, especially when that same environment features reduced vertical wind shear, increased moisture, and decreased atmospheric stability. The entire predicted ACE range for 2020 is now above NOAA's lower threshold (120% of median) for an above-normal season, and the center of that range (185% of median) is now above NOAA's lower threshold (165% of median) for an extremely active season. Predicted Activity. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions now present within the MDR are exceptionally conducive for hurricane development, and are predicted to last through the peak months of the hurricane season (August-October). NOAA hurricane forecast predicts record number of storms in 2020. All models now predict the season to be even more active than they did in May, with most also predicting the possibility of an extremely active season. NOAA uses this robust measure of overall seasonal activity to help classify hurricane season strength. The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division. NOAA's updated 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal hurricane season is very likely, with a significant possibility of the season being extremely active. The latest averages of the dynamical and statistical model predictions (thick orange and green lines, respectively) now predict La Niña to develop during ASO or Sep.-Nov. (SON). 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary. 5 months ago. Reasons why the likelihood of an above-normal season has increased. a. NOAA's updated 2020 Atlantic hurricane season outlook reflects three main factors, all of which point to a very high likelihood of an above-normal season, and also to a potentially extremely active season. NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Also in place is a more conducive African easterly Jet. Forecast Advisories Public Advisories Discussions Wind Speed Probabilities; Saturday September 12, 2020: 1: 2100 UTC: 1: 500 PM AST 2: 1100 PM AST: 1: 500 PM AST 2: 1100 PM AST: 1: 2100 UTC; Sunday September 13, 2020: 2: 0300 UTC 3: 0900 UTC 4: 1500 UTC 5: 2100 UTC: 3: 500 AM AST 4: 1100 AM AST 5: 500 PM AST 6: 1100 PM AST: 3: 500 AM AST 4: 1100 AM AST 5: 500 PM AST 6: 1100 PM … August 6, 2020 Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to fuel storm development in the Atlantic, leading to what could be an “extremely active” season, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) FLOR-FA model, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) GloSea5 model, and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model. NOAA Updates 2020 Hurricane Outlook. As with every hurricane season, the need to be prepared is critically important this year. This 2020 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Also, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. This value is the third largest for June in the record 1950-present. This 2020 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). It only takes one hurricane (or tropical storm) to cause a disaster. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlantic conditions, Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions, The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is now predicted to produce, Atmospheric and oceanic conditions now present within the MDR, There is about a 50% chance of La Niña during August-October, inter-related set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, SSTs are currently well above average across the MDR, models all predict a continuation of above-average SSTs during ASO, The vertical wind shear also remains weaker than average, West African monsoon has been enhanced all summer, ENSO-neutral conditions have been present this summer, dynamical and statistical model predictions, 19-25 Named Storms, which includes the nine recorded named storms during May-July, 7-11 Hurricanes, which includes two hurricanes to date. His research focuses on extreme storms—in particular tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons)—and their relationship with climate and climate change. Dr. Gerry Bell, Lead Forecaster, Meteorologist; Gerry.Bell@noaa.gov, Matt Rosencrans, Meteorologist; Matthew.Rosencrans@noaa.gov, Dr. Hui Wang, Physical Scientist; Hui.Wang@noaa.gov, Eric Blake, Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake@noaa.gov, Dr. Chris Landsea, Meteorologist; Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov, Dr. Richard Pasch, Hurricane Specialist; Richard.J.Pasch@noaa.gov, Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov. La Niña typically reduces the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, thus also favoring a more active hurricane season. COSMIC-2 provides data about air temperature, pressure and humidity in the tropical regions of Earth — precisely where hurricane and tropical storm systems form. This year’s hurricane season could be “extremely active,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).. 2020 forecast courtesy of NOAA. These numbers have increased from the forecast issued in May, which indicated about a 40% chance of La Niña during ASO 2020. Tropical Weather Discussion. The predicted 2020 activity reflects a continuation of the Atlantic high-activity era that began in 1995. For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several shorter-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity. Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on any watches and warnings. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not predict levels of activity for any particular location. 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